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Birth of the Modern World: The Cataclysm that Shaped Today

现代世界的诞生: 塑造今天的大灾难

An assassination in 1914 that helped determine the structure of the modern world

1914年的一次暗杀帮助决定了现代世界的结构

Cody Trusler

作者:科迪 · 特拉斯勒

“The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time” - Sir Edward Gray, Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom

英国外交大臣爱德华 · 格雷爵士说: “整个欧洲的灯都熄灭了,在我们有生之年,我们将看不到它们再次点亮。”

On a summer morning in June of 1914, the world would test its ability to adapt to the constantly fluctuating politics. This test, which would forever change the landscape of Europe, would be sparked by two shots in the city of Sarajevo. Gavrilo Princip, a man who is only known for pulling the trigger, assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne. He triggers the political confrontation that would lead to the First World War and would have lasting effects, even today.

1914年6月的一个夏日早晨,世界将考验众国适应频繁波动的政治的能力,这场将永远改变欧洲面貌的考验,由萨拉热窝市响起的两声枪响点燃。
加夫里洛 · 普林西普 ( Gavrilo Princip ) 扣动扳机,暗杀了奥匈帝国王位继承人弗朗茨 · 斐迪南大公 ,由他引发的政治对抗将导致第一次世界大战,并将产生持久的影响,直到今天。



Serbia’s connection to these organizations sparked outrage in the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The nation prepared to declare war on Serbia for their part in the assassination. Given the time period, this is a reasonable response, but Austria-Hungary had another issue: the Russians; Serbia''s powerful ally. Russia claimed to be the protector of the Slavic people, which at the time, included Serbia. But after losing a war against Japan in 1905, they were viewed as a weak state. Russia made alliances of their own with other powerful nations of Europe such as France. Austria-Hungary was a brittle state due to the many ethnic groups withinside the Empire. Because of this, they decided to ally with Germany. This resulted in the chain of events that choose the sides of the war.

塞尔维亚与这些组织的联系引发了奥匈帝国的愤怒,这个国家准备向塞尔维亚宣战,因为他们参与了暗杀行动。
鉴于当时的情况,这似乎是一个合理的回应,但奥匈帝国还面临另外一个问题:
俄罗斯,塞尔维亚的强大盟友,俄罗斯声称是斯拉夫人民的保护者,当时的塞尔维亚被包括在内,但在1905年与日本的战争失败后,他们被视为一个弱国。
俄罗斯与欧洲其他强大的国家结盟,比如法国,由于帝国内部有许多民族,奥匈帝国也是一个脆弱的国家,因此,他们决定与德国结盟——这导致了一系列选择战争方的事件。

Germany eventually became the central player in World War One, but in the beginning they only after the outbreak of war, they only declared war due to the terms of their alliance to Austria-Hungary.* Kaiser Whilhelm II, the Emperor of Germany, told his ally that they had a Blank Check* and left for his yearly vacation after this proclamation. Leaving the German high command in charge did not change the view of the Germans. TheGerman leaders pushed Austria-Hungary to invade Serbia and finish the fight, leaving Germany as an advisor rather than the key decision-makers until the crisis’ breaking point. Once Kaiser Whilhelm II returns from his trip, he realizes it is too late to deescalate the rising tensions. Despite attempts to do all within his power to stop the war, his efforts will inevitably fail.

德国最终成为了第一次世界大战的核心参与者,但他们是在战争爆发之后才根据与奥匈帝国的同盟条款宣战的。
德皇威廉二世告诉他的盟友,他们手上的东西不过是一张空头支票,并在发布这份声明之后就去度假了,(奥匈帝国)愿意让德军最高指挥部来指挥作战并掌权的提议并没有改变德国人的观点。

德国领导人敦促奥匈帝国尽快攻入塞尔维亚并结束战争,在危机爆发之前,德国只是一个顾问,而不是关键的决策者。
德皇威廉二世结束他的旅行回来之后,他意识到现在要缓和不断升级的紧张局势已经迟了,尽管他竭尽全力阻止战争,他的努力还是不可避免地失败了。

Austria-Hungary also felt they were bullied in the Concert of Europe*, which was established after the end of the Napoleonic wars to establish peace among the great powers. The Concert of Europe was a quasi forerunner to the United Nations of today and acted in the name of peace among those powers, but was failing to accomplish peace in its death throes. Austria-Hungary had to deal with the turmoil politically; but rather than sending diplomats to Serbia they decided on hostilities. Austria-Hungary also wanted to bypass a congress session to attempt a fait accompli*, or a victory with little resistance. This may have worked had they decided to mobilize their forces sooner rather than worry about what the Concert of Europe would view this decision of war. This is when the problem escalated.

奥匈帝国还感到自己在“ 欧洲同盟 ”( Concert of Europe ) 中受到了欺凌,这个组织是拿破仑战争结束后建立的,目的是在大国之间建立和平。
“ 欧洲同盟 ”是今天联合国的准亲身,以这些大国之间和平的名义采取行动,但在其存在的最后一刻也未能实现和平。
奥匈帝国不得不在政治上应对动乱,但他们没有派遣外交官前往塞尔维亚,而是决定采取攻击行动。

奥匈帝国还希望绕过同盟会议,试图造成既成事实,或者说取得几乎没有阻力的胜利。
如果他们更早决定动员他们的军队,而不是担心“ 欧洲同盟 ”会如何看待这个战争决定,这种做法也许会奏效,之后问题开始升级。



The Ultimatum of Austria-Hungary, July 23th, 1914.

奥匈帝国的最后通牒,1914年7月23日

Austria-Hungary delivered an ultimatum to Belgrade on July 23rd. Their response was a ruse. The document was designed for rejection. Austria-Hungary made demands that were equivalent to giving up sovereignty, such as asking Serbia to allow their police to investigate the crime in Serbian territory and to request to make arrests in the conspiracy of the assassination of the archduke.

奥匈帝国于7月23日向贝尔格莱德发出最后通牒,这一举动是一个诡计,这份文件就是为塞尔维亚拒绝而设计的,文件提出了相当于让塞尔维亚放弃主权的要求,比如要求塞尔维亚允许其警方在塞尔维亚领土上调查罪行,并要求逮捕密谋刺杀大公的人。

If today, the United States went to Russia and demanded the ability to make a formal police investigation into the meddling of the elections or the United States would go to war with Russia.

如果今天,美国去到俄罗斯,要求在其领土范围内对干预选举事件发起正式的警方调查,美国必将与俄罗斯开战。

On July 25th, Serbia agreed to most of the points in the ultimatum with the one exception of the aforementioned Austrian-Hungarian police were not to be involved in the Serbian investigation of the assassination. Serbia also stated in the response that if Austria-Hungary was not satisfied with the response Austro-Hungary could dispute it at the Concert of Europe. This was never going to happen. As tensions rose in the Balkans, something far worse started to manifest in the east; Russian mobilization.

7月25日,塞尔维亚同意最后通牒中的大部分要点,除了前面提到的奥匈帝国警方不得参与塞尔维亚对暗杀事件的调查。
塞尔维亚还在回应中表示,如果奥匈帝国对答复不满意,可以在欧洲同盟会议上对此提出异议。
但这永远不会发生了,随着巴尔干地区紧张局势的升级,更糟糕的事情开始在东方显现:
俄罗斯发起动员令。



The Washington Times commenting on Austro-Hungary’s declaration of war on July 28th, 1914.

《 华盛顿时报 》评论1914年7月28日奥匈帝国的宣战

On the day of the response to the ultimatum, Russia started a partial mobilization. This meant they were preparing troops for conflict. The problem is that once mobilization starts the other powers have to prepare for an attack. Germany sent Russia warnings regarding mobilization and demanded Russia to call off its military. This begins the breakdown of negotiation, and because of the lack of cooperation, diplomacy disintegrated. Three days later, on July 28th, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. Two days later, Russia gives full mobilization orders to their entire military which starts exacerbated the domino effect. On August 1st, Germany declared war on Russia, then declared war on France two days later. In an attempt to fight and win a two-front war Germany invaded Belgium. German was given an ultimatum by Britain, who protects Belgian neutrality, to remove themselves from Belgium or face war. They refuse the ultimatum, and on August 4th one of the most catastrophic wars in human history had begun.

在对最后通牒作出回应的那一天,俄罗斯开始了部分动员,这意味着他们正在为冲突做准备,问题在于,一旦动员开始,其它大国就必须为攻击做好准备。
德国就动员问题向俄罗斯发出警告,并要求俄罗斯撤军,谈判随之破裂,由于缺乏合作,外交上的行动也瓦解了。
三天后,也就是7月28日,奥匈帝国对塞尔维亚宣战。
两天后,俄罗斯向其军队下达了全面动员令,这加剧了多米诺骨牌效应。
8月1日,德国向俄罗斯宣战,两天后又向法国宣战。
为了打赢这场双线战争,德国入侵了比利时,保护比利时中立的英国向德国发出了最后通牒,要求德国撤出比利时,否则将面临战争。
德国拒绝了英国的最后通牒,8月4日,人类历史上最具灾难性的战争之一开始了。

What did this do to the world? For starters, the monarchical systems which ruled Europe since the fall of the Roman Empire collapsed inside of four years. Democracy, fascism, and communism took their roots in the scarred hellscape that was a recovering Europe. The events of World War One formed many situations that we are affected by today.

这对世界产生了什么影响?
首先,自罗马帝国灭亡以来统治欧洲的君主制度在四年内就崩溃了。
民主、法西斯主义和其他主义于满目疮痍的、地狱般的景象中扎下根来,那是一个正在复苏的欧洲。
第一次世界大战的事件形成了许多我们今天仍受到影响的局势。

Take, for example, the Soviet unx and the major impacts that the country exerted on the world. Not only did the Soviet unx become a superpower in the mid-twenty century, but it also would shape modern Europe and the Middle East. If Germany and Russia Empires not been at war, Russia could have focused internally on the rising issues of their own state. More importantly, Germany would not have sent Vladimir Lenin back to Russia to cause civil unrest. When Russia collapsed in 1917, Lenin was there to take advantage of a weak new state and establish a communist one in his wake. He also appoints people to powerful positions, including the man who would shape twenty years of Russian history. Stalin would undoubtedly change Russia, which went from an agricultural state into a dominating industrial power while he was a dictator. The state would once again change after his death, however, and when the Soviet unx collapses in 1991 the borders of many newly independent nations would further shape Europe. The Soviet unx would never have gained this had it not been for the events that led Lenin to Russia during the First World War.



The Second World War could be considered a continuation of the first but was never a solidified event. What I mean by this is that without the events of 1914 this war may never have happened. For example, if Germany had not been declared war on by Britain, Germany easily could have defeated the French and Russian armies in the battle by making France capitulate and facing Russia with a full force focused on a single front. Britain during the early stages of the war stops a German army from taking Paris by exploiting a gap in the lines. This single event changed the outcome of the war and prolonged it to four of the bloodiest years in human history. The Second World War shapes the politics of today with ideas such as not amassing the powers to fight a total war, or even de-escalation of situations that could lead to conflicts.

第二次世界大战可以被认为是第一次世界大战的延续,从来就不是一场单独存在的战争。
我的意思是,如果没有1914年的事件,这场战争可能就不会发生。
例如,如果德国没有被英国宣战,德国可以轻易地在战斗中击败法国和俄罗斯的军队,让法国投降,并在单一战线上集中全部兵力对付俄罗斯。

战争初期的英国利用战线上的缺口,阻止了德国军队占领巴黎,这一事件改变了战争的结果,并将战争延长到人类历史上最血腥的四年。
第二次世界大战塑造了今天的政治,其思想包括不积累打一场全面战争的权力,甚至缓和可能导致冲突的局势。
第二次世界大战塑造了当今的政治格局,其理念包括不汇集大国打一场全面战争,降低可能导致冲突的局势。

Another event that happened, is to a nation that joined later. The Ottoman Empire, which was in the twilight of their empire, decided to join Germany and fight against the Russians, French, and British. The Empire would collapse and be carved up by the powers of France and Britain. This would have many lasting effects, but there are two in mind that affect life today in the Middle East.

另一个大事件是,一个后来加入的国家:奥斯曼帝国,在帝国的黄昏决定加入德国,与俄罗斯,法国和英国作战,帝国最终崩溃,被法国和英国瓜分,这产生了许多持久的影响,其中两个影响到今天的中东。

The borders we see today in areas such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon were all formed from the French and British controlling the territories of these countries after the war. The formation of these states did not all come peacefully. For example, the Arabic states waged wars against Israel to attempt to destroy the state’s existence. Israel, which was created from the mass movement of Jews from Europe, with a major influence from the Zionist movement. Jews were given the opportunity to migrate to the British Mandate of Palestine. The Belford Declaration allowed Jews an easier method to move to their ancestral homeland but would cause tension with the Palestinians that already lived there. The tension would rise into small skirmishes, from Britain making immigration to Palestine more strict and the agreement to give the Jews a state of their own, lasted until the Second World War. In 1947 Israel declares independence but at the cost of war with all of its neighbors. Many wars would be waged against Israel until uneasy peace was obtained with most of their neighbors, but that did not stop the conflict with inside Israel. Palestinians waged aggressive uprises independence for their people, these are known as the Antifatas. The Conflict in Israel and Palestine is still waged today and is a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East. This is also a topic for another time.

我们今天看到的诸如沙特阿拉伯、约旦、叙利亚、伊拉克、土耳其、以色列、巴勒斯坦和黎巴嫩等地区的边界都是由战后控制这些国家领土的法国和英国所划分的。
这些国家的形成并非都是和平进行的。
例如,阿拉伯国家对以色列发动战争,企图摧毁这个国家的存在。
以色列,它是由来自欧洲的犹太人的大规模运动创建的,受到犹太复国主义运动的重大影响,犹太人得以移民到巴勒斯坦是由于英国的影响,当时的巴勒斯坦有英国委任统治。

《贝尔福德宣言》允许犹太人以更简单的方式迁移到他们祖先的家园,但这会与已经居住在那里的巴勒斯坦人产生紧张关系。
紧张局势升级为小规模的冲突,从英国对移民巴勒斯坦施加更严格的限制,到给予犹太人一个自己的国家的协议,一直持续到第二次世界大战。
1947年,以色列宣布独立,但代价是与所有邻国开战,之后发生了多次针对以色列的战争,直到他们与大多数邻国维持不稳定的和平,但这并没有停止与以色列的冲突,巴勒斯坦人为他们的人民争取独立,他们被称为 Antifatas,以色列和巴勒斯坦的冲突至今仍在进行,这是中东的一场人道主义危机,这也是另一个话题。

All things considered, the July Crisis would bring a catastrophic war that still haunts the world today. The birth of the modern world came from the old world being engulfed in flames and forged in that fire. The rise and fall of nations would shape the nations that we know today. This should be a grave reminder of what to keep an eye out to prevent catastrophes, like World War One, from ever happening again. When a terrorist, or freedom fighter depending on the perspective, unknowingly triggers a global conflict and ignites the world, history often remembers what happens and tells us why we live in the world we do today. The best we can do is remind ourselves of what others died for in an attempt to not make the same mistakes as those who came before us.

综上所述,七月危机带来一场灾难性的战争,这场战争至今仍然困扰着世界。
现代世界诞生于被火焰吞噬并在火焰中锻造的旧世界,国家的兴衰将塑造我们今天所知道的世界。
这应该是一个严肃的提醒,提醒我们应该注意什么,以防止像第一次世界大战这样的灾难再次发生。
当一名恐怖分子或“自由战士”不知不觉地引发了一场全球冲突,并点燃了整个世界时,历史往往会记住发生了什么,并告诉我们为什么我们还活在今天这个世界上。
我们能做的最好的事情就是提醒我们自己其他人为什么而死,以免重蹈我们前辈的覆辙。

Footnotes

脚注



Sources
July 1914: Countdown to War, by Sean McMeekin
Rites of Spring: The Great War and the Birth of the Modern Age, by Modris Eksteins
The Pity of War: Explaining World War I, by Neill Ferguson
Catastrophe 1914: Europe Goes to War, by Max Hastings
The Seminal Tragedy World War I, by Extra History
Blueprints for Armageddon, By Dan Carlin, Hardcore History

参考来源:
《 1914年7月:战争倒计时》,肖恩·麦克米金
《 春之祭:大战与现代的诞生》,莫德里斯·埃克斯坦斯
《 战争的怜悯:第一次世界大战的解释》,尼尔·弗格森
《 1914年大灾难:欧洲走向战争》,马克斯·哈斯廷斯
《 第一次世界大战的悲剧 》,Extra History
《 世界末日的蓝图 》,丹 · 卡林,《硬核历史》